Premium Bond checker
Enter how much you hold and we will estimate what you are realistically likely to win, using the actual prize breakdown from the August 2026 NS&I draw.
Your holding
Typical winnings
£300
Median over 12 months
Average winnings
£358
Mean, inflated by jackpots
Effective return
3.58%
Annualised average, tax-free
What that actually means
- Most likely range: £125 – £600 (the middle 80% of simulated outcomes).
- Expected number of prizes: 5.5 over 12 months.
- Chance of winning nothing at all: 0.428%.
- Chance of the £1m jackpot: roughly 1 in 570,352 for this holding and period.
Expected prizes by value
12 month viewEstimates only, based on the published August 2026 prize breakdown (22,000:1 odds, 3.8% prize fund rate). From the September 2026 draw NS&I pays 4.35% with odds of 21,000:1, so results now are slightly better than shown. Prizes above £1,000 are excluded from the chart because expected counts are far below one.
Latest official draw: August 2026
£1,000,000
2 winners
£100,000
83 winners
£50,000
165 winners
Jackpot winners came from Kent and Hampshire and the Isle of Wight.
See the full prize breakdownFrequently asked questions
Is this the official Premium Bond prize checker?+
No. Only NS&I can tell you whether a specific Bond number has won — use their prize checker or app for that. This tool estimates what a holding of your size is statistically likely to win, based on the published prize breakdown.
How is the estimate calculated?+
Every £1 Bond has a 22,000 to 1 chance per monthly draw. We take the published prize counts for the August 2026 draw, work out the chance of each prize value, then run 4,000 simulated draws of your holding to show typical rather than average outcomes.
Why is my typical return lower than the prize fund rate?+
The 4.35% prize fund rate is an average that includes the £1 million jackpots. Because those huge prizes go to very few people, the median saver earns less than the headline rate. That gap is the real cost of the lottery element.
Does holding the maximum improve my odds?+
It improves your consistency, not your odds per Bond. The £50,000 maximum holding gives you 50,000 chances each month, so your results cluster much closer to the average than a £1,000 holding would.
How this calculator works
Premium Bonds pay no interest. Instead, every £1 bond is entered into a monthly prize draw, and NS&I sets a prize fund rate that describes the average payout across all bonds held for a full year.
This checker estimates the prizes a given holding is likely to win over a year, using the published prize fund rate and odds. Because prizes are lumpy and mostly £25, typical results for smaller holdings fall below the headline rate.
Formula and methodology
Expected annual prizes ≈ Holding × prize fund rate | Expected wins per year = (Holding ÷ odds) × 12- Holding
- — number of £1 bonds held
- Prize fund rate
- — NS&I annual rate across all bonds
- Odds
- — published chance per £1 bond per monthly draw
- Take your holding in whole £1 bonds, capped at the £50,000 maximum.
- Multiply by the current prize fund rate for the mean expected annual prize total.
- Divide the holding by the published odds and multiply by twelve to estimate wins per year.
- Compare the median-style outcome, dominated by £25 prizes, against a taxed savings account rate.
Worked examples
Maximum holding
- • £50,000 held for a full year
- • Prize fund rate applied
- • Bonds eligible in every draw
Typically a prize most months, with an expected annual return close to the prize fund rate.
Small holding
- • £1,000 held for a full year
- • Same odds per bond
Most likely a small number of £25 prizes, and a realistic chance of winning nothing at all in the year.
Assumptions
- The current NS&I prize fund rate and odds stay unchanged for the whole year.
- Bonds are held for at least one full calendar month before their first eligible draw.
- Prizes are not reinvested into additional bonds.
- Outcomes are averages, not a forecast of your individual draws.
Limitations
- Prizes are random. The mean is skewed upward by rare large prizes, so most holders receive less than the headline rate.
- NS&I changes the prize fund rate and odds periodically, which changes expected returns immediately.
- Because there is no interest, the real value of your capital falls when inflation is above zero.
- The tool cannot predict individual draws or guarantee any prize.
Noviqen provides general information, not personalised financial advice. See our editorial policy.
UK context
Premium Bonds are issued by NS&I and backed by HM Treasury, so capital is 100% secure rather than being limited to the £85,000 FSCS deposit limit.
The minimum holding is £25 and the maximum is £50,000 per person, with draws held on the first working day of each month.
All prizes are free of UK income tax and capital gains tax, which makes them most competitive for savers who have already used their personal savings allowance and ISA allowance.